13 — Herd & Social

Social Proof#

◐ Behavioral
◆ The PatternUsing others' behavior as evidence of the "correct" action (Cialdini).

Social proof (Cialdini, 1984) — using others' behavior as evidence of the correct action.

Market expressions:
• "Everyone is buying crypto — it must be good"
• Following influencer/expert recommendations blindly
• Popularity of a stock = perceived quality
• Crowded trades feel safe — until they reverse simultaneously

Social proof works well in stable, familiar environments. It fails catastrophically in uncertain, novel situations — exactly when you need independent thinking most.

Pattern bridge: Copying others as a decision shortcut is an embedding heuristic — if nearby vectors do it, so should I. In statistics, it’s the law of large numbers misapplied: consensus ≠ correctness.
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