22 — Market Cycles

Accumulation & Distribution#

◐ Behavioral
◆ The PatternRichard Wyckoff's four market phases: Accumulation (smart money buys quietly), Markup (trend up, public joins), Distribution (smart money sells to public), Markdown (trend down, public panics).

Accumulation & Distribution — Wyckoff's framework for understanding market phases through the lens of "smart money" behavior.

Four phases:
1. Accumulation: Smart money quietly buys. Volume low. Public uninterested.
2. Markup: Price rises. Public notices. Volume increases. FOMO begins.
3. Distribution: Smart money sells to eager public. High volume. Media attention peaks.
4. Markdown: Price falls. Public panics. Smart money waits to re-accumulate.

Wyckoff's "Composite Man" = the aggregate of well-informed money deliberately accumulating or distributing.

Pattern bridge: Smart money quietly building positions before the crowd notices. In ML, gradient accumulation before an optimizer step is the same: gather signals silently, then act.
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