Accumulation & Distribution — Wyckoff's framework for understanding market phases through the lens of "smart money" behavior.
1. Accumulation: Smart money quietly buys. Volume low. Public uninterested.
2. Markup: Price rises. Public notices. Volume increases. FOMO begins.
3. Distribution: Smart money sells to eager public. High volume. Media attention peaks.
4. Markdown: Price falls. Public panics. Smart money waits to re-accumulate.
Wyckoff's "Composite Man" = the aggregate of well-informed money deliberately accumulating or distributing.
After a fall from 60, the last ten days trade in a box 7.3% wide. Inside it, average volume on up days is 1.5 times volume on down days. A Wyckoff reader calls that accumulation: someone buying on rallies while sellers dry up. The code finds the pattern; the story about who is behind it is an interpretation.
- The “Composite Man” is a narrative device. The same volume can be read as accumulation or distribution, and no peer-reviewed test has validated Wyckoff’s schematics.
- Volume does carry information about prices (Blume, Easley & O’Hara 1994), which is the part worth keeping.
- A range can resolve either way; the label is only confirmed by the breakout.
df = pd.DataFrame({ # a fall, then a sideways range, made up
'close': [60, 56, 52, 49, 47, 48, 46, 47.5, 47, 48.5, 47.5, 49, 48, 49.5],
'volume': [30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 38, 22, 36, 20, 40, 21, 42, 19, 44]})
box = df.tail(10) # the last ten days
width = (box.close.max() - box.close.min()) / box.close.mean()
up = box.close.diff() > 0
up_down_volume = box.volume[up].mean() / box.volume[~up].mean() # > 1 is read as quiet buyingAssumes import numpy as np and import pandas as pd. Each snippet carries its own example numbers; the comments say which are made up.
- R. D. Wyckoff, The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, course, 1931
- L. Blume, D. Easley & M. O’Hara, “Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume”, Journal of Finance 49(1), 1994
- The Three Skills of Top Trading, H. O. Pruden, Wiley, 2007
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